Edward H. Kaplan

Edward H. Kaplan


Faculty Page
William N. and Marie A. Beach Professor of Operations Research, Chemical & Environmental Engineering & Public Health
Room / Office: Room 3550
Office Address:
165 Whitney Avenue
New Haven, CT 06511
Mailing Address:
P.O. Box 208200
New Haven, CT 06520
Phone: (203) 432-6031
Email: edward.kaplan@yale.edu

Ph.D., Massachusetts Institute of Technology


Professor Kaplan's research has been reported on the front pages of the New York Times and the Jerusalem Post, editorialized in the Wall Street Journal, recognized by the New York Times Magazine's Year in Ideas, and discussed between the covers of TimeNewsweekUS News and World ReportConsumer Reports and the New Yorker, and in person on NBC's Today Show, the Cronkite Report, and National Public Radio. The author of more than 100 research articles, Professor Kaplan received both the Lanchester Prize and the Edelman Award, the two top honors in the operations research field. An elected member of both the National Academy of Engineering and the Institute of Medicine of the US National Academies, he has also twice received the prestigious Lady Davis Visiting Professorship at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem, where he has investigated AIDS policy issues facing the State of Israel. Kaplan’s current research focuses on the application of operations research to problems in counterterrorism and homeland security.

Selected Awards & Honors:

  • Phillip McCord Morse Lectureship Award, 2009
  • Charles C. Shepard Science Award, 2009
  • The Distinguished Lecture in Global Security Law and Policy, Case Law School, 2007
  • Bohm Bawerk Lecture, Austrian Academy of Sciences, 2006
  • Koopman Prize, 2005
  • Fellow, Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences, 2005
  • Elected Member, Institute of Medicine, 2004
  • Elected Member, Connecticut Academy of Science and Engineering, 2004
  • Koopman Prize, 2003
  • Elected Member, National Academy of Engineering, 2003
  • INFORMS President's Award, 2002
  • Pinchas Naor Memorial Lecturer, Operations Research Society of Israel, 2001
  • Omega Rho Distinguished Lecturer, Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences, 2000
  • Arnoff Lecturer, University of Cincinnati, 2000
  • Ira V. Hiscock Award, Connecticut Public Health Association, 1997
  • Lady Davis Visiting Professorship, 1997 (Department of Statistics, Hebrew University of Jerusalem)
  • Frederick W. Lanchester Prize, 1994
  • Lady Davis Visiting Professorship, 1994 (Department of Statistics, Hebrew University of Jerusalem)
  • Franz Edelman Award, 1992
  • State of Connecticut Health Department AIDS Leadership Award, 1991
  • Excellence in Teaching Award from the Yale SOM Alumni Association, 1991
  • Elm and Ivy Award for Town-Gown Relations, New Haven, 1991

Selected Publications:

  • Analysis of a Strategic Terror Organization, Journal of Conflict Resolution (with Jonathan Feinstein, 2010 in press). 
  • Confronting Entrenched Insurgents, Operations Research (with Moshe Kress and Roberto Szechtman, 2010 in press).
  • FCFS Infinite Bipartite Matching of Servers and customers, Advances in Applied Probability, 41:695-730, 2009 (with Rene Caldentey and Gideon Weiss).
  • Nature Plays with Dice - Terrorists Do Not: Allocating Resources to Counter Strategic and Probabilistic Risks,European Journal of Operational Research, 192:198-208, 2009 (with Boaz Golany, Avi Marmur and Uri Rothblum).
  • "Estimation of HIV incidence in the United States" (with H. Irene Hall, Ruiguang Song, Philip Rhodes, Joseph Prejean, Qian An, Lisa Lee, John Karon, Ron Brookmeyer, Matthew McKenna, and Robert Janssen), Journal of the American Medical Association, 300:520-529, 2008
  • "Modeling a presidential prediction market" (with M. Keith Chen and Jonathan E. Ingersoll, Jr.), Management Science, 54:1381-1394, 2008
  • "Suicide bombings and targeted killings in (counter) terror games" (with Daniel Jacobson), Journal of Conflict Resolution 51:772-792, 2007
  • "A Cure for the Electoral College?" (with A. Barnett), Chance, Vol. 20, 6-9, 2007
  • "Anti-Israel Sentiment Predicts Antisemitism in Europe" (with C. Small), Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol. 50, 548-561, 2006
  • "Tactical Prevention of Suicide Bombings in Israel"(with A. Mintz and S. Mishal), Interfaces,  Vol. 36, No. 6, 553-561, 2006
  • "Operational effectiveness of suicide-bomber-detector schemes: A best-case analysis" (with M. Kress),Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, Vol. 102, 10399-10404, 2005
  • "Preventing second generation infections in a smallpox bioterror attack," Epidemiology, Vol. 15, 264-270, 2004
  • "Analyzing bioterror response logistics: the case of smallpox" (with David L. Craft and Lawrence M. Wein),Mathematical Biosciences, Vol. 185, 33-72, 2003
  • "Emergency response to an anthrax attack" (with D. L. Craft and L. M. Wein), Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, Vol, 100, 4346-4351, 2003
  • "Smallpox eradication in West and Central Africa: surveillance- containment or herd immunity?" (with L. M. Wein), Epidemiology, Vol. 14, 90-92, 2003
  • "A New Approach to Estimating the Probability of Winning the Presidency" (with A. I. Barnett), Operations Research, 2003
  • "Emergency Response to a Smallpox Attack: The Case for Mass Vaccination" (with D. Craft and L. Wein),Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 2002
  • "March Madness and the Office Pool" (with S. Garstka), Management Science, 2001
  • "Treatment on Demand: An Operational Model" (with M. Johri), Health Care Management Science, 2000
  • "Repeat Screening for HIV: When to Test and Why" (with G. Satten), Journal of AIDS, 2000
  • "Snapshot Estimators of Recent HIV Incidence Rates" (with R. Brookmeyer), Operations Research, 1999
  • "Israel's Ban on Use of Ethiopians' Blood: How Many Infectious Donations were Prevented?," The Lancet, 1998
  • "Let the Needles Do the Talking!" (with E. O'Keefe), Interfaces, 1993
  • "To Be or Not to Be? That Is Conception" (with A. Hershlag, A.H. DeCherney, and G. Lavy), Management Science, 1992
  • "Needles that Kill," Reviews of Infectious Diseases, 1989
  • "What Are the Risks of Risky Sex?," Operations Research, 1989

Sponsored Research:

  • Daniel Rose Technion- Yale Initiative in Homeland Security and Counterterror Operations Research


  • Board of Governors, Technion-Israel Institute of Technology
  • Naval Studies Board, National Research Council, National Academies
  • National Academy of Sciences, Committee to Improve Intelligence Analysis for National Security
  • Advisory Board, H. John Heinz III School of Public Policy and Management, Carnegie Mellon University
  • Intelligence Community Associates Program

Selected Books:

  • Quantitative Evaluation of HIV Prevention Programs (with R. Brookmeyer, ed.), Yale University Press, 2002
  • No Time to Lose: Getting More from HIV Prevention (with M. Ruiz, A. Gable, M. Stoto, H. Fineberg, and J. Trussell), National Academy Press, 2000
  • Modeling the AIDS Epidemic (with M. Brandeau, ed.), Raven Press, 1994